China 2060: model runs carbon-neutral simulation

BY RHIANNON GARTH JONES | 10 APRIL 2024

Researchers have simulated what's needed for a carbon-neutral China, and it's a lot.

The turnaround required for China – currently the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter – to reach its committed goal of carbon neutrality by 2060 is considerable.

Now, a joint study from researchers at Tsinghua University in Beijing and at the University of California San Diego, US, has built and run a model to simulate a suitable carbon-neutral power grid for China in 2060 and assess requirements to reach this ambitious target (PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.2306517121).

Exploring the unique constraints and potentials of variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, the results have implications from both a methodological and technological perspective.

The simulation found three key areas where China will require new capacity: 2-4TW each of solar and wind power; terawatt-level energy storage; and a doubling or tripling of ultra-high-voltage transmission between the country’s provinces.

Previous Chinese investment in solar panels, coupled with the country’s ability to install infrastructure on a large scale, is one of the success stories of the 21st century, according to Paul Nightingale, professor of strategy at the University of Sussex Business School, UK.

It has already led to major improvements in mass production and commercial viability. Similar investment in wind and solar farms, as well as grid technology, would likely have a major impact around the world, says Nightingale.

‘There are localised differences,’ Nightingale says, ‘but cost structures for technology in general should change significantly with the scale of resources China could mobilise. Additionally, the country’s ability to build on existing economic and tech relationships within their sphere of influence – for example across much of Africa – would see a wide global diffusion of their innovative tech solutions.’

In particular, high-power mega grid connections are an area of intense need, which is likely to experience transformative growth by China prioritising research.

The report also highlighted other areas that could see major research breakthroughs and which have an impact globally.

These include: pumped storage hydropower, to support variable energy like solar and wind; electrochemical battery storage for electric vehicles; increased efficiency wind energy technology; and reduced energy transport, such as hyperloop trains.