Climate change is likely to lead to big changes in the types of crops grown across the UK in the coming decades.
Chickpeas, soyabeans and oranges may become common crops in the UK by 2080 which means that locally-produced hummus, tofu and marmalade might be standard fixtures on supermarket shelves, according to researchers - but it might be less good news for strawberries.
The study led by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) with the University of East Anglia (UEA) investigated the future outlook for over 160 existing and new food crops in different regions of the UK under warming scenarios of 2 and 4 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial times.
The study, with mapped projections for every 1km square in the UK, predicts that future warmer temperatures would make it possible to grow oranges, chickpeas and okra in the UK.
Lead author John Redhead, a spatial ecologist at UKCEH, said: “Our climate is expected to change substantially over coming decades at a time when there will be rising demand for food due to population growth. It is therefore essential that arable farming becomes more resilient; one possible solution is growing different crops that are more suited to the new local conditions.”
The researchers note that climate change is already having a major impact on UK agriculture. There have been several years of record low yields caused by extreme weather, often in combination, such as a wet winter followed by a particularly dry spring, while new agricultural pests and diseases are becoming established or increasing with climate change.
The survey found that – in the UK at least - climate change results in increased suitability for many current and potential new crops.
However, some key produce is likely to become harder to grow in the South East and East Anglia, which are currently the UK’s most productive arable regions. The climate in these areas is expected to become less suitable for wheat and strawberries in a 2-degrees-of-warming scenario, while 4 degrees of warming would result in a worse outlook for crops including onions and oats.
The study said there would be “substantial” increases in suitability for a broad range of crops not yet widely grown in the UK including sunflower, durum wheat, soybeans, cow peas, chickpeas, citrus fruit and okra and grapes for wine. Chickpeas, for example, have only been grown commercially in the UK in the last decade, and the researchers said growing more legumes - important protein sources – could help support shifting the UK from meat consumption to a more balanced diet and lower carbon footprint. Legumes also add nitrogen to the soil, reducing the reliance on fertilisers.
“At first glance, climate change would appear to bring many opportunities to UK agriculture. We find that none of the UK's current major crops showed UK-wide declines in suitability, under either warming scenario,” the report said.
One problem is that climate change may change the where crops can be best grown. For example, where crops did show potential regional declines, these were often in southeast England, which currently contains the most extensive and productive arable land and most diverse range of crop types.
The researchers said that while production of major crops might simply shift to match changing suitability (for example replacing one type of wheat or oats with another) there are limits to this method of adaptation. There were fewer alternatives for soft fruits and vegetables, which are important micronutrient sources. And the areas of the UK with the greatest increases in potential suitability across crops - the southwest and Scottish borders – will have to deal with limiting factors including small field sizes, variable topography and isolation from much of the current infrastructure of crop processing and supply chains all of which limit the extent to which production of major crops is likely to shift to these areas.
“Realising these opportunities would thus be likely to require substantial changes to current farming systems and supply chains,” the researchers note. The study said there are “therefore likely to be considerable challenges in adapting UK agricultural systems to realise the potential opportunities that climate change provides for alternative crops and crop diversification”. There are also economic risks investing in new agronomic practices and technology, and potential environmental risks in introducing crops to new locations, including interactions with pollinators, wild crop relatives and pests.
Redhead said: “Clearly, it’s unlikely to be feasible just to switch large-scale food production from Britain’s agricultural heartlands of southeastern England to Scotland, for example. However, climate change is happening now, and its impacts will increase by 2080, so whatever action is taken will involve big challenges in terms of where our food comes from and the way our agricultural landscapes are managed.”
The researchers suggest there are ways to manage the changes, such as
- Further research into the viability of the crops that are identified as ‘winners’ in these scenarios
- Changing agricultural supply and distribution networks to support new crops in new locations.
- Adopting new agricultural systems such as paludiculture (wet farming) and indoor vertical farming.
- Breeding and growing more heat- or drought-resilient varieties of existing staple crops.
Study co-author Professor Rachel Warren of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at UEA said that without this sort of data agricultural systems risk being ‘locked in’ to current crops choices, with adaptations failing to keep pace with climate change. “Major changes to agricultural systems and diets can take decades to implement and so our long-term projections provide important information well ahead of time for farmers, supermarkets, researchers, policymakers and the public on the opportunities, challenges and trade-offs involved in adapting to the impacts of climate change,” she said.
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